Public opinion polls elections. Upcoming elections to the State Duma. Party with the President

A week before the elections, VTsIOM gave second place to the LDPR. The gap with the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has increased compared to previous polls and is 5%. With such polls, sociologists put psychological pressure on voters, the expert believes

Leader of the LDPR party Vladimir Zhirinovsky (Photo: Sergey Fadeichev/TASS)

Strengthening before elections

The LDPR secured second position in the pre-election rankings, increasing its lead from the third-placed Communist Party of the Russian Federation on Monday. This is the last day when sociological services can publish measurements public opinion before the State Duma elections.

According to a VTsIOM survey conducted on September 10-11 (combined data from residential and CATI surveys, sample size: 3,200 people), the LDPR rating is 12.6% (of all respondents). At the beginning of September, 2% fewer respondents were ready to vote for the LDPR. This is the party's highest figure since the start of the election campaign (in June it gained 10.3%).

The Communist Party of the Russian Federation ranks third with a result of 7.4%, although on September 3-4, 8.7% of Russians were ready to vote for the Communists. On the eve of the elections, VTsIOM published the lowest result of the Communists since the beginning of the campaign.

“An important trend in recent weeks is the strengthening of the LDPR, which is increasingly claiming second place,” comments VTsIOM General Director Valery Fedorov in a press release. According to him, the Communist Party's campaign does not lead to an increase in the party's ratings, but the base electorate of the Communist Party is sufficiently mobilized.

United Russia has strengthened its position at the finish line and is “confidently leading in the election race” (41.1%), the press release says. In the previous survey, United Russia members received 2% less - only 39.3%.

The rating of the party in power decreased in three months from 45 to 41% of the vote, Fedorov recalls. “In recent days, the downward trend has stopped and the rating has grown again, probably due to the party’s effective emphasis on its connection with the president,” believes the head of VTsIOM.

A Just Russia also has a chance of retaining its faction in the new State Duma, sociologists note. According to VTsIOM, support for the party increased over the week from 5.3 to 6.3%. In general, the rating of the Social Revolutionaries is unstable, Fedorov notes.

The Public Opinion Foundation of the LDPR: according to its data as of September 4, 11% of respondents are ready to vote for the LDPR, while 9% are ready to vote for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.

According to the latest Levada Center poll conducted at the end of August, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation held second place with 15%, ahead of the Liberal Democratic Party by 1%. Since June, the LDPR has not overtaken the communists, the Levada Center recorded.

Convenient party

RBC's interlocutors in the Kremlin have been increasing the LDPR's ratings in recent months. True, they assumed that on election day the elderly electorate of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation would demonstrate greater discipline and mobilization than the young electorate of the Liberal Democratic Party, and as a result, the communists would still take second place.

Last Thursday, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Vyacheslav Volodin said at a meeting with leading political scientists that the LDPR is becoming the “party of second choice” and, under certain conditions, can overtake the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. He attributed this to the fact that party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky seriously changed his approach to campaigning. “The shockingness and conflicts are gone, but he is on the state’s agenda,” noted a Kremlin official.

The experts participating in the event agreed with the Kremlin official, but also presented their own arguments. President of the Center for Political Technologies Igor Bunin explained the trend by saying that some liberal-minded voters do not want to go against the authorities and public opinion, so they choose the LDPR as an alternative to European-oriented parties. Evgeny Minchenko, head of Minchenko Consulting, spoke about the strengthening of nationalism throughout the world, and hence the growth in the ratings of the LDPR, he insisted.

The point is rather about the loss of positions by the communists, who for a long time gained points through the “opposition version of patriotism,” noted Alexey Zudin, a member of the expert council of the ISEPI Foundation. After the annexation of Crimea, the communist version of patriotism became devalued, the expert noted. The patriotic agenda, which was previously monopolized by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, has now moved to United Russia, the Liberal Democratic Party and other parties, Volodin agreed.

Russian sociology exerts psychological pressure on voters, says political scientist Alexander Kynev. “The authorities would really like the LDPR to take second place, because this party is more convenient and comfortable for the authorities,” Kynev believes. According to him, during the campaign the share of undecided people grew. “The total votes of those who have decided are falling, and for everyone, including the Liberal Democratic Party. And those who are undecided can rush anywhere in the elections. And sociologists distribute the share of undecideds evenly between parties,” says the expert.

The LDPR showed its best result in the elections of the State Duma of the first convocation in 1993 - 22.92% of the vote. The party doubled its performance in the elections of the Duma of the second convocation (1995), receiving 11.18%. Four years later, in 1999, the Zhirinovsky Bloc gained only 5.98%. In the elections of the Duma of the fourth convocation in 2003, the LDPR returned to its previous result - 11.45%. Four years later the party received 8.14%. In the last Duma elections in 2011, 11.67% of Russians voted for the LDPR.

On September 18, 2016, elections to the State Duma of the country will be held in all populated areas of the Russian Federation (cities, towns, villages). The original Election Day date of December 4 has been changed. Due to the prematureness of the elections and early termination of work, all re-elected deputies will receive monetary compensation for the period of “unemployment”. Representatives of 14 parties are competing for seats in the Duma, but not all of them will gain the required number of “percentages”. In the question of who will win the State Duma elections in 2016, there are many aspects that are not yet fully understood, although the three leaders in opinion polls have already been determined. According to the results of a voter survey and the opinion of experts, three parties will definitely enter the State Duma: United Russia, LDPR and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.

Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 - expert opinion

According to experts, despite the rapid decline in trust in the United Russia party, the majority of Russians who fear change will still support United Russia. In percentage terms, the number of seats for United Russia deputies can range from 40% to 55%: September is still far away, and changes are constantly taking place in the political arena of Russia and the world. In the summer of 2016, the popularity of Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s party, the LDPR, grew at an all-time high. Thanks to the well-thought-out policy pursued by the party and the charismatic, original personality of Vladimir Volfovich himself, the LDPR “took away” a huge part of the percentage of voters from “United Russia” and “A Just Russia”. From the very beginning of the Crimean events, the LDPR supports the decision of the Crimeans and the position of the Russian President, which is also approved by the majority of the country's citizens. In addition, the liberal democrats “took” part of the electorate from the communists. Gennady Zyuganov is supported by many pensioners and young communists, but their number is smaller than those who adhere to the LDPR party line. However, it is these three parties, among which United Russia is likely to receive the majority of votes, that will determine who will implement reforms and pass laws in Russia, starting in September 2016.

Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016, forecast

According to the forecast of most political scientists, the United Russia party will win the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation in 2016. The number of seats going to representatives from the Communist and Liberal Democratic parties is likely to be approximately the same. About 28-30% of all deputies will be represented by these parties. Most likely, deputies from Yabloko and PARNAS will enter the State Duma. Today, on social networks, in particular, such as VKontakte and Facebook, groups have been created where community members discuss the upcoming Duma elections in 2016 and the likelihood of who will win the fight. In almost each of these communities, a mini-vote is carried out for a particular party. Today, independent voters are going to support the parties United Russia, Parnas, LDPR and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Do not forget that the majority of VK users are young people, so the picture (from an age point of view) is incomplete. It is with the aim of understanding who supports whom in the future Duma that public opinion polls are conducted.

Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016, results of the opinion poll

According to the latest summer polls of Russians, at least 45% of the country's citizens are going to take part in the elections to the State Duma of Russia. For some, this percentage may seem low, but in previous elections to the State Duma, the number of citizens participating in them was less than half of the electorate. Today, more than half of those who will take part in the elections on September 18 will vote for United Russia. About 15% of citizens are confident that they will support the LDPR, and about 20% - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Today, about 4% of voters would vote for A Just Russia, while Yabloko is still trusted less (about 2%). About 2% of Russians surveyed generally stated that they intended to spoil the ballots in some way; the same number plans to vote “against all”, crossing all parties off the ballot. The latter are confident that no matter the balance of power, United Russia will win the elections, and it is simply impossible to change anything here.

Today, not only experts and political scientists know for sure the answer to the question of who will win the State Duma elections in 2016. Their forecasts completely coincide with the opinions of the majority of people expressed during opinion polls conducted both in the capital and in other cities of the country. The leader will be the United Russia party, but the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party will definitely enter the parliament. The percentage of deputies from the remaining 11 parties participating in the elections to the State Duma is difficult to predict. The situation is changing every day, which is especially dangerous for the Yabloko and A Just Russia parties, which are almost confident of overcoming the required 5% barrier and receiving the required number of votes.

There is less and less time left before the September elections to the lower house of the Russian parliament. However, this does not mean that the leaders of the race for seats in State Duma will be able to retain their “places” occupied by them during all the disputes, battles and pre-election discussions. The already “traditionally ruling” United Russia has slightly weakened its position: too many voters have become disillusioned with the policies pursued by this party under the leadership of D. Medvedev. Anonymous opinion polls conducted on social networks and forums show a high percentage of support for the communists (the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, led by G. Zyuganov and the LDPR (leader - V. Zhirinovsky). Yabloko, a traditionally "left" party, is also in favor, however, its supporters are incomparably smaller. Today, the majority of active supporters of United Russia and skeptics have no doubt who will win the State Duma elections in 2016. The bets are on United Russia, and, according to experts and according to the forecasts of political analysts, it is simply unrealistic for them. the loss of the United Russia Communist Party of the Russian Federation or the Liberal Democratic Party must gain at least another 25-30% of the votes.

Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 - expert opinion

According to most experts, the United Russia party will win the State Duma elections in 2016. Considering that it is headed by the “second helmsman” of the country, Dmitry Medvedev, and also taking into account the powerful financing of the United Russia, it is United Russia that is destined to receive a larger percentage of seats in the State Duma of the Russian Federation. Western analysts are predicting mass discontent among Russians over the results of the September 18 vote. In their opinion, the cause of unrest and even protests could be election fraud. At the same time, Westerners argue that it will be easier to rig voter results in the regions than in Moscow and St. Petersburg electoral districts. American experts generally talk about a “new revolution in Russia.” As US political scientists believe, after the newly elected State Duma begins its work, Russians will immediately “not like” its decisions. Russian experts, on the contrary, do not doubt the transparency of the elections in general, admitting discrepancies between the true figures of the voting results and the final ones announced. Wait and see. The current, sixth convocation of the Russian parliament has served its term. Vacations in the Duma begin after the last meeting of all deputies on June 24. After this, in September 2016, on the 18th, a list of new elected representatives of the people will be determined. The composition of the Duma, elected in 2016, will be the seventh in a row. The current sixth composition of the Duma will receive compensation for early termination of work. Deputies who are deprived of their mandates by voting will be deprived of these payments.

Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 - forecast

Since United Russia is currently in the lead, and the top three contenders for seats in the lower house of parliament include both the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party, we can talk about not one, but three winners. More than six months ago, forecasts about who would win the elections in 2016 spoke of one thing: United Russia, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party (in that order). Following the top three is A Just Russia, which failed to achieve such a rating earlier, in the 2011 elections. Then half of the votes went to United Russia, just over 19% to the communists, and almost 12% to the liberal democrats. This sequence and, accordingly, the seats and number of seats in the Duma may now change. V. Zhirinovsky actively supports the president’s policies and demonstrates his complacent attitude towards United Russia. Even the skirmishes between communists and liberal democrats are no longer so frequent and not so frighteningly extravagant. With such a “liberal”, soft policy, the leader of the LDPR can get more votes for his party and, perhaps, overtake the communists. Across Russian regions, the average percentage of support for United Russia is about 50%. With fourteen parties vying for seats in the Duma, this is certainly a clear lead and one step away from victory on September 18, 2016.

Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 - opinion poll

Today, opinion polls regarding who will win the 2016 State Duma elections are conducted not only by specialists from sociological centers. In particular, a group has been registered on VKontakte, whose members are engaged in active discussions of the upcoming elections on September 18, forecasts, and polls. In particular, on the main page, all registered VK users can take part in a mini-survey. Today, a large percentage of survey participants support the LDPR. Many “root” for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, United Russia and Parnas. It is interesting that the choice of anonymous respondents (not only in VK) differs slightly from the opinion of experts and political scientists. If elections were held now, the LDPR, United Russia, Parnas and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation would definitely get into the Duma (the sequence of opinion poll results was observed).

Moscow. September 19. website - On Monday, the majority of votes were counted in the elections to the State Duma, local parliaments and heads of Russian regions, which were held throughout the country on Single Voting Day - September 18. The leaders in the voting for legislative bodies were again representatives of United Russia, and in the gubernatorial elections - the current heads of regions or those acting temporarily.

Other trends include the weakening of the positions of A Just Russia and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation due to the growing popularity of the LDPR among voters, low turnout for elections in Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as a decrease in the number of violations during voting.

The final results of the elections to the State Duma of the seventh convocation will be summed up on Friday, September 23, but, according to the Central Election Commission, no significant changes should be expected regarding the already calculated results.

Changes

The main feature of this year's elections was the return of the mixed voting system - out of 450 deputies of the State Duma of the seventh convocation, 225 people are elected according to party lists and the same number are elected from single-mandate constituencies. At 95,836 polling stations throughout the country it was possible to vote for 14 political parties(listed in order of placement in the ballot): "Motherland", "Communists of Russia", "Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice", "United Russia", "Greens", "Civic Platform", LDPR, PARNAS, "Growth Party", " Civil Force", "Yabloko", Communist Party of the Russian Federation, "Patriots of Russia" and "A Just Russia".

It is noteworthy that this year they also abandoned the practice of “locomotives”, when a popular and authoritative person (a high-ranking politician, athlete, actor, etc.) is put at the head of the list in elections under the proportional system, due to which the rating of his party and the number of votes cast for her voices are growing. Subsequently, the leader of the list renounces his mandate in favor of a less eminent party member.

Elections to the State Duma

As reported by the Central Election Commission (CEC of the Russian Federation), based on the results of counting 93.1% of the protocols, United Russia receives 140 seats in the State Duma according to party lists and 203 seats in single-mandate constituencies. Thus, according to preliminary data, United Russia will have 343 seats in the State Duma out of 450 (that is, 76.2%).

The ruling party received the most votes in regions with the maximum turnout at polling stations: for example, 88% in Dagestan, 81.67% in Karachay-Cherkessia, 77.71% in Kabardino-Balkaria, 77.57% in the Kemerovo region. In some regions, United Russia, although it became the leader of the vote, did not achieve such high results. So, in the Chelyabinsk region they voted for her, and in Moscow -.

Thus, United Russia can already count on a constitutional majority in the State Duma (more than two-thirds of the seats), which will allow the party to adopt amendments to the Constitution (with the exception of a few chapters), as well as override the presidential veto.

The second party in terms of the number of mandates, according to preliminary data, turns out to be the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. According to party lists, she receives 13.45% of the votes - that is, 35 mandates; in single-mandate constituencies - seven mandates. The LDPR follows with a small margin - 13.24% voted for it in the single federal district, which corresponds to 34 mandates; according to single-member lists, this party receives five mandates. "A Just Russia" received 6.17% of the votes on party lists, and received seven seats in parliament on single-mandate lists.

The majority of the lower house of the Russian parliament will remain largely four-party, and even lowering the barrier to entry into the State Duma from 7% to 5% did not help non-parliamentary parties qualify on all-party lists. Only Rodina and Civic Platform will be able to get one seat each in the lower house, since two of their candidates were able to win in their single-mandate constituencies. In addition, the State Duma will include one self-nominated candidate - Vladislav Reznik.

Elections of regional heads

Within One day Elections of heads of nine regions were also held - in Komi, Tuva, Chechnya, the Trans-Baikal Territory, as well as in the Tver, Tula and Ulyanovsk regions. At the same time, in North Ossetia-Alania and Karachay-Cherkessia, regional heads are elected by regional parliaments.

To win in the first round, a candidate needed to get more than 50% of the votes. Sergei Gaplikov succeeded in this, for whom 62.17% of voters voted. A clear leader was also identified in Chechnya - after counting 93.13% of the ballots, it turned out that almost 98% of those who came to the elections voted for the acting head of the region, and his closest rival, Commissioner for the Protection of the Rights of Entrepreneurs of Chechnya Idris Usmanov, received only 0.83% votes.

Self-nominated Alexey Dyumin, acting head of the Tula region, based on the results of processing 100% of the protocols, scored 84.17%, and the current head of the Republic of Tuva Sholban Kara-ool - 86%. The situation was similar in the Trans-Baikal Territory - the candidate from United Russia, acting governor Natalya Zhdanova received 54.22% of the votes, and in the Ulyanovsk region - acting governor Sergei Morozov, nominated by United Russia, based on the results of processing 82% of the protocols of election commissions , received 53.91% of the votes. Acting Governor of the Tver Region Igor Rudenya was also a leader in his region.

Elections to regional authorities

In 39 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, elections to regional parliaments were held, in particular, in Adygea, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Karelia, Mordovia, Chechnya, Chuvashia, in the Altai, Kamchatka, Krasnoyarsk, Perm, Primorsky and Stavropol territories; in the Amur, Astrakhan, Vologda, Kaliningrad, Kirov, Kursk, Leningrad, Lipetsk, Moscow, Murmansk, Nizhny Novgorod, Novgorod, Omsk, Orenburg, Oryol, Pskov, Samara, Sverdlovsk, Tambov, Tver, Tomsk and Tyumen regions; in St. Petersburg, in Jewish autonomous region, in Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug- Ugra and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug.

As part of the Single Voting Day, they also elected the head of the city of Kemerovo, deputies of municipal assemblies in the capitals of 11 regions - in Ufa, Nalchik, Petrozavodsk, Saransk, Grozny, Perm, Stavropol, Kaliningrad, Kemerovo, Saratov and Khanty-Mansiysk.

The head of the Central Election Commission, Ella Pamfilova, said that they received a total of 16 seats in regional parliaments across the country. Thus, Patriots of Russia received four mandates, Yabloko - five, Party of Growth and Pensioners for Justice - three each, and Rodina - one.

Turnout by country

For Russians who find themselves outside their homeland during elections, polling stations are traditionally organized abroad. Nevertheless, the President of Ukraine ordered to inform Russia about the impossibility of holding elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory. Kyiv said it could change its position if Moscow refuses to hold elections in Crimea, which Ukraine considers occupied territory. Nevertheless, Russians were able to vote at the embassy in Kyiv and the consulate general in Odessa, but the process of expressing their will was accompanied by unrest. There were no violations of law and order in Lvov and Kharkov. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called not to recognize the results of the State Duma elections in terms of voting in Crimea.

At about 10 a.m., the head of the Central Election Commission, Pamfilova, announced the turnout for the current elections as 47.81%. Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said that it cannot be called low, and added that it turned out to be “higher than in the vast majority of European countries” and “does not affect the election results themselves, their credibility.”

The highest voter turnout was demonstrated by the Karachay-Cherkess Republic and Kabardino-Balkaria - more than 90%, Dagestan - more than 87%, as well as the Kemerovo and Tyumen regions - 74.3% and Chechnya.

The lowest voter turnout rates were also in St. Petersburg, which Peskov called a traditional phenomenon. Thus, in the capital, 35.18% of the electorate went to the polls, which is significantly less than during the parliamentary elections of 2003, 2007 and 2011. The Moscow City Election Commission suggested that turnout was affected by cold weather and rain, as well as poor work by parties with voters.

According to the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation, in Moscow, United Russia is gaining 37.3% of the votes, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 13.93%, the Liberal Democratic Party - 13.11%, Yabloko - 9.51%, A Just Russia - 6.55% .

Turnout was even lower than in Moscow - 32.47%.

Violations

According to Pamfilova, every third message is related to illegal actions, every fifth is a complaint about falsification of voting results or impending mass fraud. “Several requests were received from observers about their dismissal by the employer in connection with participation in the election campaign. This needs to be taken under special control - the prosecutor’s office will definitely not be left without work,” she said.

One of these violations - stuffing of ballot papers by the secretary of the precinct election commission (PEC) in the Rostov region - has already led to an outbreak. Even on voting day, a video from a surveillance camera appeared on the Internet, which shows two women and a man blocking the view of the box, and another woman putting a stack of ballots inside.

Also, a serious incident was recorded in Dagestan - a group of young people destroyed a polling station during voting under the pretext that there was a massive stuffing of ballots in favor of one of the candidates.

In addition, the elections in one of the polling stations in the Nizhny Novgorod region were declared invalid, and in three more polling stations in the Rostov region the results were in doubt. A camera phone left by one of the observers helped record the dumping of ballots, and now the voting results at that precinct have been cancelled.